On Monday, the Chairman of Foreign Affairs committee, Ed Royce, announced he is stepping down after the midterm elections. The next day, another Orange County Representative, Darrell Issa, said that he was going to pursue other things after the end of his current term.
All the Districts in Orange County are currently occupied by four Republicans, and the only ones that appear to be running for reelection are Dana Robacher and Mimi Walters. Democrats are hoping this is their chance to flip the county into voting Democratic. In 2016, all four districts voted for Hillary Clinton.
In order for the Republicans to hold their seats, they need strong candidates in the two districts that are now up for grabs. They need ones who side with Liberals on social issues and are open to talking with the other side of the aisle about immigration, as the issue is a major deal in a state that borders Mexico and has immigrants from all around the world.
This would not guarantee a Republican win. Orange County has the potential to be negatively affected by tax reform, with the SALT deduction capped at $10,000.
Democrats would need 24 seats to gain the House, and the best way to do that is through California. Doing so would sideline the Trump agenda, costing him 2020. The job of the Republican party is to find younger and more moderate candidates to run for seats that are in jeopardy (think Joy Villa in Florida).
The Democrats’ biggest problem that cost Hillary Clinton the election was voter turnout. Once again, most liberals are unable to vote or simply do not have the time. If they show up to the polls, then they have a chance.
As with many competitive elections, it will ultimately come down to who can attract voters turnout and how much money is poured in.
Photo credit: County of Orange